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Assume a Stakepool with a delegated amount of x Ada. How can one calculate the probability of minting a block and what factors does it depend on?

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Visit a site like pooltool.io to see current delegated total for the network (top left corner), currently 30.24b ADA but changes day to day. Each epoch we have 0.05 (active slot coefficient network parameter) of the available slots on average assigned a leader slot (chance to produce a block), which is 5 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 0.05 = 21600 blocks per epoch on average.

Doing the simple maths for, say, 1 million ADA delegated to a pool yields 1,000,000 / 30,240,000,000 * 21600 = ~ 0.7 blocks per epoch. Alternatively you can do 1/21600 * 30,240,000,000 to get a result of 1,400,00 ADA for one block on average.

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Currently, on average it’s 1M Ada to mint one block per epoch consistently. On ADApools.org a correlation between “Estimated Blocks in Whole Epoch” and “live stake” can be observed.

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It depends on a few parameters: 1. Transaction fees from the set of transactions included in a block that was minted. 2. Monetary expansion: involves distinguishing between the total supply of ada and the maximal supply of ada. Please note that the more pools join the network, the less reward will be distributed.

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